Price Dynamics of Renewable Diesel HVO (UCO) in Europe: A Review of Supply, Demand, and Policy Determinants

This journal examines the price volatility of renewable diesel HVO based on used cooking oil (UCO) in Europe for the period 2022–2025 within the context of the European Union's decarbonization policy. The study aims to explain the price formation mechanism through the interaction of supply, cross-sector demand, and regulations such as RED III, ReFuelEU Aviation, and FuelEU Maritime. Using a qualitative literature review method, the research identifies key factors: UCO scarcity and traceability risks, conversion costs, compliance credit value, and policy expectations. The results show that "policy stacking" triggers competition among road, aviation, and maritime sectors for limited feedstock, driving price volatility. The implication is that harmonization of mandates and diversification of raw materials are needed to maintain market stability and the credibility of the energy transition.