Price Dynamics of Renewable Diesel HVO (UCO) in Europe: A Review of Supply, Demand, and Policy Determinants

This journal analyzes the price dynamics of renewable diesel HVO based on used cooking oil (UCO) in Europe for the period 2022–2025 within the context of the "Fit for 55" decarbonization policy. The study aims to explain the price formation mechanism through the interaction of supply, cross-sector demand, and regulations such as RED III, ReFuelEU Aviation, and FuelEU Maritime. Through a qualitative literature review, it was found that prices are determined by feedstock scarcity, conversion costs, compliance credit value, and policy expectations. "Policy stacking" triggers competition among road, aviation, and maritime sectors for the limited UCO, increasing volatility. The implication is that harmonization of mandates, strengthening traceability, and diversifying feedstocks are needed to maintain market stability and the credibility of the energy transition.