Europe's Quest for 'Independence': Analyzing Ursula von der Leyen's Speech in Davos

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By: Yuri O. Thamrin

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The special address by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, January 21, 2026, drew attention not only for its content but also for the implicit discontent clearly felt towards the political direction of the United States in the Trump 2.0 era. Amid a world that is increasingly transactional, full of geopolitical pressures, and weakening multilateralism, this speech reflects the European Union's aspiration to be truly “independent” strategically from the United States—in terms of economy, technology, energy, and security.

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The question is: how should we interpret this speech? What are the opportunities and challenges facing the European Union going forward? And equally important, what are the implications for Indonesia, especially regarding strategic commodities like oil palm?

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Europe and the Ambition of Strategic Autonomy

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Von der Leyen's speech marks the European Union's effort to position itself as an “independent power” (strategic autonomy) amid an increasingly harsh global landscape. The main message is not merely normative optimism but a redefinition of the European Union's role.

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If the EU has so far been known as a normative power—a guardian of values, rules, and multilateralism—Europe now wants to emerge as a more protective, selective, and realistic actor in defending its own interests. Values remain important, but they no longer stand alone. They are now complemented by economic shields, industrial policies, and strategic protection.

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Implicitly, this speech is a response to three major issues: the resurgence of U.S. economic nationalism, the fragmentation of the global order, and the fragility of the free trade regime that once underpinned Europe's prosperity.

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Opportunities for the European Union

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First, this speech opens up opportunities for internal consolidation within the European Union. The push for joint industrial, defense, energy, and technology policies has the potential to strengthen the EU's cohesion as a bloc. This ambition is intended to reduce dependence on the United States and China—a significant step for a region that has relied on security umbrellas and external markets for decades.

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Second, the European Union is trying to position itself as a “third pole” in global rivalry. On one side is the increasingly transactional United States, and on the other is the highly state-driven China. The EU wants to emerge as a stable, predictable, and rule-based alternative. This opens up new diplomatic space, including broader partnerships with Global South countries.

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Third, the values plus leverage approach gives the European Union new bargaining power in trade and climate policy. The EU is no longer merely lecturing on standards but also using market access, regulations, and industrial policies as negotiation tools.

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Challenges Lurking

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However, this ambition is not without risks.

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The first challenge is the contradiction between values and interests. The rhetoric of openness often clashes with green protectionism practices, domestic industry subsidies, and strict regulations like EUDR and CBAM. In the eyes of many developing countries, this can easily be perceived as double standards.

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Second, the internal fragmentation of the European Union itself. Not all member states have the same interests and levels of readiness. Differences between Western, Eastern, and Southern Europe could weaken the implementation of strategic ambitions that look great on paper.

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Third, there is a risk of alienating Global South partners. If Europe's approach feels patronizing and insensitive to the development realities of developing countries, the strategic autonomy strategy could widen the gap rather than build equal partnerships.

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Implications for Indonesia and Oil Palm

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For Indonesia, this speech should be read clearly and without illusions. A more “independent” European Union also means a more protective European Union. In this context, strategic commodities like oil palm will remain under strict scrutiny—in the name of the environment, climate, and governance.

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However, the shift in the EU's direction also opens up opportunities. If Europe wants to build new, more balanced partnerships with the Global South, then Indonesia needs to shift its position from being a regulatory object to a strategic partner. This requires more proactive, data-driven, and confident diplomacy: demonstrating real progress in palm oil sustainability, contributions to global energy and food security, and Indonesia's role in regional stability.

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Issues like EUDR should not only be debated as trade barriers but also negotiated within the broader framework of economic-political relations, including IEU–CEPA, energy transition, and global supply chain security.

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Conclusion

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Ursula von der Leyen's speech reflects a geopolitically more mature but also more defensive European Union. This is no longer the Europe that naively believes free markets will solve all problems. The world has changed, and Europe is trying to adapt.

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However, the success of this ambition heavily depends on one crucial factor: whether the European Union can align its idealism with realism without losing its moral credibility. For Indonesia, the challenge is to carefully interpret this change—not with an emotional reaction, but with a calm, wise strategy based on long-term national interests.